Viktoria Köln 1-3 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
4.65
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
59%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
4.52
2-3 Goals
34%
1.91
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
12%
8.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
8.37
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
20.0
1/X
8%
16.6
X/1
5%
11.0
X/2
17%
4.14
X/X
9%
6.26
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.9
2/X
4%
14.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.0 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
18%
+1.7pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.3pp
59%
Away Win
60%
-1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Viktoria Köln EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 64%
+64% / +64% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 5.62/0.41
+46% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +142% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
270 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.1
Crosses 16.4
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Viktoria Köln
1-3
AWAY Paderborn
1.38 xG 2.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 0
422 Passes 273
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Viktoria Köln vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paderborn saw off Viktoria Köln 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Paderborn as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Viktoria Köln had 58% of the ball to Paderborn's 42%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.38 to 2.38.

What was the final score of Viktoria Köln vs Paderborn?

Viktoria Köln 1-3 Paderborn in the Germany - DFB Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Viktoria Köln vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Viktoria Köln 20%, draw 21%, Paderborn 59%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paderborn), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paderborn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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