Auxerre 1-0 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.74
Over
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2.8
2-3
36%
1.73
4-5
21%
3.84
6+
9%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 28.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.59
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
12%
5.37
X/2
12%
5.92
X/X
15%
4.15
2/1
9%
29.0
2/2
13%
4.17
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auxerre The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient The Market 37%
-8% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -6%
0.83/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.63
-28% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -17%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
346 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
15.1 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auxerre
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lorient
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.35
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 418
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2023 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
16.09.2022 Auxerre Auxerre 1-3 HT 0-3 Lorient Lorient FR1
13.12.2019 Lorient Lorient 1-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
29.04.2019 Lorient Lorient 2-2 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
03.12.2018 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR2
17.02.2018 Lorient Lorient 1-3 HT 1-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auxerre
1-0
AWAY Lorient
1.44 xG 1.37
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
291 Passes 392
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
10 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Auxerre vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auxerre nicked a narrow win over Lorient 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auxerre as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Auxerre had 44% of the ball to Lorient's 56%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.44 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Auxerre and 1.17 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Auxerre vs Lorient?

Auxerre 1-0 Lorient in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auxerre vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Auxerre 41%, draw 28%, Lorient 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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