Brest 3-3 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Aug 2025

Brest
3-3 HT 1-2
Lille
📅17/08/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.74
Over
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.76
No
47%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.82
2-3
42%
1.73
4-5
21%
3.79
6+
8%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.49
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
10%
5.28
X/2
14%
6.0
X/X
11%
4.2
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
14%
4.26
2/X
10%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
39%
-3.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.1pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest The Market 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille The Market 36%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.44/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.18
+10% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +27%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
22.9 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lille
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.69 xG 1.46
40% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
295 Passes 475
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
13 Box Touches 25
14 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 Brest Brest 2-0 HT 1-0 Lille Lille FR1
06.12.2024 Lille Lille 3-1 HT 2-0 Brest Brest FR1
17.03.2024 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
22.10.2023 Lille Lille 1-0 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.02.2023 Lille Lille 2-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
11.01.2023 Brest Brest 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
3-3
AWAY Lille
2.01 xG 1.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 2
272 Passes 363
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brest vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest and Lille couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Brest had 46% of the ball to Lille's 54%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.01 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Brest and 1.17 for Lille.

What was the final score of Brest vs Lille?

Brest 3-3 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Brest 36%, draw 27%, Lille 38%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lille), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lille) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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