Nantes 0-1 PSG — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 Aug 2025

Nantes
0-1 HT 0-0
PSG
📅17/08/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
9.57
Draw
17%
5.71
Away Pick
71%
1.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.51
Over
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1
24%
5.28
2-3
39%
1.97
4-5
23%
2.55
6+
14%
5.99
Value flag · 0-1 at 5.28 — our 24% vs market 13.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
20.25
1/2
8%
21.5
1/X
6%
28.0
X/1
4%
23.2
X/2
20%
3.77
X/X
6%
9.12
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
43%
1.36
2/X
5%
23.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
PSG win — 71%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
12%
Home Win
8%
+3.8pp
17%
Draw
15%
+2.3pp
71%
Away Win
77%
-6.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.6pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes The Market 10%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG The Market 81%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +3%
1.07/1.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/0.98
-11% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -10%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
311 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 527 · 86%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.2
16.3 Crosses 15.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
0W-2D-4L
AWAY PSG
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.64 xG 1.86
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
253 Passes 751
77% Pass Accuracy 92%
19 Box Touches 37
13 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.04.2025 Nantes Nantes 1-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
30.11.2024 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 1-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
17.02.2024 Nantes Nantes 0-2 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
09.12.2023 PSG PSG 2-1 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
04.03.2023 PSG PSG 4-2 HT 2-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
03.09.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-3 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
0-1
AWAY PSG
0.14 xG 1.43
29% Ball Possession 71%
5 Total Shots 18
0 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
224 Passes 680
74% Pass Accuracy 91%
12 Box Touches 44
6 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nantes vs PSG
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG nicked a narrow win over Nantes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Nantes had 29% of the ball to PSG's 71%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.14 to 1.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold PSG's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Nantes and 2.17 for PSG.

What was the final score of Nantes vs PSG?

Nantes 0-1 PSG in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs PSG?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Nantes 12%, draw 17%, PSG 71%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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