Baglan Dragons 3-3 Newport City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.99
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
1.95
Over 2.5
58%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.68
No
40%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
26%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
30%
+5.1pp
21%
Draw
25%
-4.6pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
60%
BTTS Yes
56%
+4.7pp
40%
BTTS No
44%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport City EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.46/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.00
-8% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +54%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Baglan Dragons
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Newport City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
20.07.2025 Newport City Newport City 2-0 HT 1-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALLK
25.03.2025 Newport City Newport City 1-0 HT 0-0 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons GALFAW
09.11.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 2-2 HT 1-1 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Newport City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons and Newport City couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newport City at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Newport City led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Baglan Dragons and 1.67 for Newport City.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Newport City?

Baglan Dragons 3-3 Newport City in the Wales - FAW Championship on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Newport City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 35%, draw 21%, Newport City 45%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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