Newport City 1-0 Baglan Dragons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 25 Mar 2025

Newport City
1-0 HT 0-0
Baglan Dragons
📅25/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.92
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.6pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport City v Baglan Dragons — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport City EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.45/0.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.34
-27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +32%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
371 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newport City
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Baglan Dragons
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
09.11.2024 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 2-2 HT 1-1 Newport City Newport City GALFAW
POST-MATCH Newport City vs Baglan Dragons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport City squeezed past Baglan Dragons 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Newport City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

Newport City 1-0 Baglan Dragons in the Wales - FAW Championship on 25/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Newport City 51%, draw 21%, Baglan Dragons 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newport City), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newport City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GALFAW More Wales - FAW Championship
25 Mar 2025
22:30 Buckley Town vs Caersws Analysis →
22:45 Penrhyncoch vs Flint Mountain Analysis →
22:45 Holywell vs Colwyn Bay Analysis →