Baglan Dragons 2-2 Newport City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 9 Nov 2024

Baglan Dragons
2-2 HT 1-1
Newport City
📅09/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Wales - FAW Championship – 2024/2025

Baglan Dragons vs Newport City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.5pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.4pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baglan Dragons v Newport City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport City EU Bookmakers 36%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.74/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.00
-7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +84%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Newport City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons and Newport City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Baglan Dragons at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Newport City?

Baglan Dragons 2-2 Newport City in the Wales - FAW Championship on 09/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Newport City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 41%, draw 25%, Newport City 34%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baglan Dragons) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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