Willem II 0-1 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.72
Draw
20%
3.72
Away
21%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.1
Over 2.5
60%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.78
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
30%
2.92
6+ Goals
12%
9.16
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.92 — our 30% vs market 26.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.15
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.8
X/1
18%
4.29
X/2
7%
9.33
X/X
9%
5.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.05
2/2
7%
7.04
2/X
4%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
54%
+4.7pp
20%
Draw
24%
-3.6pp
21%
Away Win
22%
-1.1pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.1pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.7pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +27%
1.83/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.47
-1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
21.6 Crosses 15.2
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.63 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
454 Passes 271
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.03.2024 Willem II Willem II 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
13.08.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
15.07.2023 Willem II Willem II 4-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HAZ
06.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
18.10.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOK
12.08.2022 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
0-1
AWAY FC Eindhoven
2.37 xG 1.08
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
454 Passes 231
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 10
52 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Willem II vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven edged past Willem II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Willem II at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Willem II had 63% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 37%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.37 to 1.08 — the balance of chances actually favoured Willem II.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Willem II and 0.67 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?

Willem II 0-1 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Willem II 59%, draw 20%, FC Eindhoven 21%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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