Chernomorets 0-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.84
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.52
Over 2.5
43%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-3.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +17%
1.32/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/0.96
+25% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / +7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
278 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.7
POST-MATCH Chernomorets vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel edged past Chernomorets 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fakel as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Chernomorets vs Fakel?

Chernomorets 0-1 Fakel in the Russia - FNL on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chernomorets vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Chernomorets 28%, draw 30%, Fakel 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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