AFC Fylde 2-1 Southend United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 28% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.72
1/2
11%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
7%
6.59
X/2
17%
4.71
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1
9%
33.5
2/2
12%
2.95
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Fylde EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Southend United EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -14%
1.76/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.03
+37% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +26%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Fylde
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Southend United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
13.04.2024 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 0-2 HT 0-0 Southend United Southend United İBSL
23.09.2023 Southend United Southend United 1-2 HT 0-1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Fylde
2-1
AWAY Southend United
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
2 Passes 1
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AFC Fylde vs Southend United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Fylde nicked a narrow win over Southend United 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 26% / 40% — and on the day AFC Fylde made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, AFC Fylde had 46% of the ball to Southend United's 54%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AFC Fylde and 1.50 for Southend United.

What was the final score of AFC Fylde vs Southend United?

AFC Fylde 2-1 Southend United in the England - National League on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Fylde vs Southend United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Southend United win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split AFC Fylde 33%, draw 26%, Southend United 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Southend United) ✗ Under 2.5
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