Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.04
Away
42%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.51
Over 2.5
50%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
15%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
24%
+11.2pp
23%
Draw
30%
-6.6pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
62%
-12.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
38%
+12.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 50%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
1.47/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.12/1.07
+57% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -89% / -9%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
268 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
18.07.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
22.01.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
29.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
15.05.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera and Atletico Nacional shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Nacional at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.50 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?

Alianza Petrolera 1-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 35%, draw 23%, Atletico Nacional 42%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ BTTS No
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