Alianza Petrolera 0-2 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.46
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
26%
+7.9pp
27%
Draw
31%
-3.1pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 48%
-11% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.13/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.02
-7% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
272 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 80%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
17.5 Crosses 14.7
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.95 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
281 Passes 327
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.01.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 0-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
29.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
15.05.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
07.08.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
0-2
AWAY Atletico Nacional
1.24 xG 0.90
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 7
279 Passes 228
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional saw off Alianza Petrolera 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 55% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 45%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 1.24 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 1.50 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?

Alianza Petrolera 0-2 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 34%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional 39%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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