Santa Fe 2-1 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Jul 2024

📅18/07/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
Over 2.5
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
52%
-8.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
19%
+9.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 22%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.17/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.36
-1% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
313 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 73%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
20.8 Crosses 11.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.70 xG 0.82
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
326 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.01.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
07.08.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 2-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
15.02.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 0-2 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
11.09.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
08.04.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 3-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOLK
01.04.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Fe
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.61 xG 0.49
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
215 Passes 278
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
10 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 6
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santa Fe as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santa Fe had 47% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 53%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.61 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Santa Fe and 0.83 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Santa Fe 2-1 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 18/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 43%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pasto 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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