Atletico Nacional 3-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 22 Jan 2024

Atletico Nacional
3-1 HT 0-1
Alianza Petrolera
📅22/01/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2024

Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.8
Over 2.5
37%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.03
No
62%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.9pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
52%
+11.6pp
37%
Over 2.5
48%
-11.6pp
38%
BTTS Yes
45%
-6.8pp
62%
BTTS No
55%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Nacional v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 20%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.57/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.38
+33% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
17.6 Crosses 12.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.15 xG 0.81
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
346 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 5
The Meetings
27.10.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
13.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
29.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
15.05.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
07.08.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
12.02.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL

Atletico Nacional 3-1 Alianza Petrolera — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-1
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.09 xG 0.94
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
444 Passes 280
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional got the better of Alianza Petrolera 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 59% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 41%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 2.09 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.50 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Atletico Nacional 3-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 22/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 49%, draw 29%, Alianza Petrolera 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
22 Jan 2024
00:00 Millonarios vs Independiente Medellin Analysis →
02:10 Junior vs Atletico Bucaramanga Analysis →