Sporting Cristal 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.81
No
61%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
69%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.0pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
51%
-12.1pp
61%
BTTS No
49%
+12.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 16%
+1% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
2.09/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.63
+35% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +106% / +15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
361 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
23.9 Crosses 9.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.75 xG 1.37
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
239 Passes 263
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 4
16.04.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-3 HT 1-3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
13.08.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
13.03.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 4-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.38 xG 0.38
75% Ball Possession 25%
17 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 1
456 Passes 100
86% Pass Accuracy 58%
23 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal edged past Deportivo Garcilaso 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Cristal as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 75% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 25%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 1.38 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Sporting Cristal and 2.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Sporting Cristal 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 59%, draw 24%, Deportivo Garcilaso 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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