Chapecoense 3-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.54
Over 2.5
36%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.15
6+ Goals
7%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+6.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
61%
+3.4pp
36%
Over 2.5
39%
-3.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
0.79/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/0.98
-27% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
240 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 81%
14.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
20.6 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chapecoense
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Santos
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.65 xG 1.53
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
278 Passes 371
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.07.2024 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
18.11.2021 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
02.08.2021 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
02.12.2019 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 1-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
01.09.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
13.11.2018 Santos Santos 0-1 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chapecoense
3-2
AWAY Santos
1.74 xG 1.40
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
289 Passes 369
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Chapecoense vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chapecoense edged past Santos 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 32% / 37% — and on the day Chapecoense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chapecoense had 46% of the ball to Santos's 54%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 1.74 to 1.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Chapecoense and 1.17 for Santos.

What was the final score of Chapecoense vs Santos?

Chapecoense 3-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chapecoense vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Chapecoense 31%, draw 32%, Santos 37%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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17 Oct 2024
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