Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Mes Rafsanjan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.12
Draw
41%
2.94
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
78%
1.45
Over 2.5
22%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
27%
2.19
No
73%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
54%
2.12
2-3 Goals
29%
1.82
4-5 Goals
11%
6.02
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.12 — our 54% vs market 40.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
29%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ Draw ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
43%
-8.3pp
41%
Draw
30%
+10.2pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.9pp
78%
Under 2.5
65%
+12.8pp
22%
Over 2.5
35%
-12.8pp
27%
BTTS Yes
42%
-14.6pp
73%
BTTS No
58%
+14.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Mes Rafsanjan EU Bookmakers 30%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +13%
1.65/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/0.66
+47% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +48%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
275 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esteghlal Khuzestan
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Mes Rafsanjan
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
28.05.2024 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 2-3 HT 1-3 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
06.04.2024 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-2 HT 1-1 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan IRAN
24.12.2023 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-1 HT 1-0 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan IRAN
07.10.2023 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 0-1 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
30.12.2022 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 0-0 HT 0-0 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan IRAN
24.05.2022 Mes Rafsanjan Mes Rafsanjan 0-2 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
POST-MATCH Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Mes Rafsanjan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esteghlal Khuzestan nicked a narrow win over Mes Rafsanjan 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was the draw at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (78%), no to both teams scoring (73%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Esteghlal Khuzestan had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.83 for Mes Rafsanjan.

What was the final score of Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Mes Rafsanjan?

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3-2 Mes Rafsanjan in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Mes Rafsanjan?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Esteghlal Khuzestan 35%, draw 41%, Mes Rafsanjan 24%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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