Union Comercio 3-2 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 17 Oct 2024

📅17/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.4pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +58% / +58%
1.81/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.35
+26% / -43% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -36%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
19.0 Crosses 6.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Comercio
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 1.34
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 315
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 14
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2024 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 HT 1-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
18.09.2022 Union Comercio Union Comercio 4-0 HT 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PERU2
20.08.2021 Union Comercio Union Comercio 4-0 HT 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PERU2
27.10.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 HT 1-1 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
02.08.2018 Union Comercio Union Comercio 2-0 HT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
27.09.2017 Union Comercio Union Comercio 3-1 HT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Comercio
3-2
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
233 Passes 252
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Union Comercio vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Comercio edged past Comerciantes Unidos 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Union Comercio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Union Comercio had 48% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 52%, shots finished 17-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Comercio had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Union Comercio and 1.00 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of Union Comercio vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Union Comercio 3-2 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 17/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Comercio vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Comercio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Union Comercio 44%, draw 30%, Comerciantes Unidos 26%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Comercio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Comercio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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