Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 Union Comercio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.88
No
49%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
14%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.5pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 30%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
0.73/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/2.08
-16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 71%
10.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
15.6 Crosses 12.9
4.2 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Union Comercio
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.23 xG 0.79
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
316 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2022 Union Comercio Union Comercio 4-0 HT 2-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PERU2
20.08.2021 Union Comercio Union Comercio 4-0 HT 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PERU2
27.10.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-2 HT 1-1 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
02.08.2018 Union Comercio Union Comercio 2-0 HT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
27.09.2017 Union Comercio Union Comercio 3-1 HT 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
26.06.2017 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 2-0 HT 0-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
3-1
AWAY Union Comercio
1.46 xG 1.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
355 Passes 195
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Comerciantes Unidos vs Union Comercio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Comerciantes Unidos saw off Union Comercio 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Comerciantes Unidos as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Comerciantes Unidos had 60% of the ball to Union Comercio's 40%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 1.46 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Comercio led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 2.50 for Union Comercio.

What was the final score of Comerciantes Unidos vs Union Comercio?

Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 Union Comercio in the Peru - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Comerciantes Unidos vs Union Comercio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Comerciantes Unidos win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Comerciantes Unidos 41%, draw 27%, Union Comercio 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Comerciantes Unidos), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Comerciantes Unidos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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