Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Alianza Lima v UTC Cajamarca — Team-Based Signals
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Alianza Lima 1-0 UTC Cajamarca — Actual Match Statistics
Alianza Lima shaded a tight game against UTC Cajamarca 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals card split: no to both teams scoring (57%) came in, over 2.5 goals (56%) didn't.
The match data tells the story: Alianza Lima had 71% of the ball to UTC Cajamarca's 29%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 1.37 to 0.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Lima's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.50 for UTC Cajamarca.
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Result & Final Score
Alianza Lima 1 - 0 UTC Cajamarca in the Peru - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 79%, draw 13%, UTC Cajamarca 7%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.