Alianza Lima 1-0 UTC Cajamarca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
18%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.29
No
54%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
75%
-16.2pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.1pp
18%
Away Win
9%
+9.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
60%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY UTC Cajamarca EU Bookmakers 11%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +8%
1.98/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.63
+16% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 74%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
20.7 Crosses 16.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
4W-1D-1L
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.14 xG 1.23
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
316 Passes 203
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.08.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
05.03.2023 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 0-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
28.08.2022 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 1-1 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
10.04.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 0-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
02.10.2021 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 1-0 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
11.09.2020 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 0-2 HT 0-1 UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
1-0
AWAY UTC Cajamarca
1.37 xG 0.11
71% Ball Possession 29%
15 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 0
445 Passes 137
85% Pass Accuracy 61%
30 Box Touches 2
23 Crosses 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima squeezed past UTC Cajamarca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 71% of the ball to UTC Cajamarca's 29%, shots finished 15-2, expected goals 1.37 to 0.11 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Alianza Lima's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.50 for UTC Cajamarca.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?

Alianza Lima 1-0 UTC Cajamarca in the Peru - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 58%, draw 24%, UTC Cajamarca 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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