Carlos Manucci Trujillo 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-2.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carlos Manucci Trujillo EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 36%
+9% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.28/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.36
-24% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +73%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 73%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
19.1 Crosses 14.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carlos Manucci Trujillo
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.71 xG 0.65
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 6
244 Passes 268
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.06.2023 Carlos Manucci Trujillo Carlos Manucci Trujillo 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
27.03.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 1-2 HT 0-0 Carlos Manucci Trujillo Carlos Manucci Trujillo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carlos Manucci Trujillo
1-1
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
0.48 xG 0.66
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
247 Passes 180
73% Pass Accuracy 66%
17 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Carlos Manucci Trujillo vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carlos Manucci Trujillo and Deportivo Garcilaso couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Carlos Manucci Trujillo had 55% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 45%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.48 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Carlos Manucci Trujillo and 1.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Carlos Manucci Trujillo vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Carlos Manucci Trujillo 1-1 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carlos Manucci Trujillo vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carlos Manucci Trujillo win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Carlos Manucci Trujillo 36%, draw 28%, Deportivo Garcilaso 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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