Citizen AA 5-1 Shatin SA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
30%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.89
Over 2.5
60%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
34%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
4%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-9.8pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+8.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
31%
+8.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
69%
-8.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.5pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Shatin SA EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.53/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.78
-31% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
354 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Citizen AA
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Shatin SA
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.05.2024 Citizen AA Citizen AA 2-5 HT 1-0 Shatin SA Shatin SA HK2
10.12.2023 Shatin SA Shatin SA 1-1 HT 0-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
18.12.2022 Shatin SA Shatin SA 2-1 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
17.10.2021 Shatin SA Shatin SA 2-1 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Citizen AA
5-1
AWAY Shatin SA
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Citizen AA vs Shatin SA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA cruised past Shatin SA 5-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Citizen AA as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Citizen AA had 58% of the ball to Shatin SA's 42%, shots finished 14-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Shatin SA led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Citizen AA and 2.50 for Shatin SA.

What was the final score of Citizen AA vs Shatin SA?

Citizen AA 5-1 Shatin SA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Citizen AA vs Shatin SA?

Before kick-off our model rated a Citizen AA win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Citizen AA 48%, draw 22%, Shatin SA 30%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Citizen AA), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Citizen AA) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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