FK Rodina Moskva 0-1 Chernomorets — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 17 Nov 2024

📅17/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-7.9pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.6pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Rodina Moskva EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Chernomorets EU Bookmakers 27%
+2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.60/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.16
+10% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Chernomorets
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Chernomorets Chernomorets 2-2 HT 1-1 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
12.11.2023 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 4-0 HT 1-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RUS1
01.11.2023 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva 3-0 HT 2-0 Chernomorets Chernomorets RKBL
23.07.2023 Chernomorets Chernomorets 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Rodina Moskva FK Rodina Moskva RUS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Rodina Moskva
0-1
AWAY Chernomorets
71% Ball Possession 29%
10 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FK Rodina Moskva vs Chernomorets
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chernomorets nicked a narrow win over FK Rodina Moskva 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) promised a tight game; Chernomorets found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, FK Rodina Moskva had 71% of the ball to Chernomorets's 29%, shots finished 10-5.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, FK Rodina Moskva had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for FK Rodina Moskva and 0.50 for Chernomorets.

What was the final score of FK Rodina Moskva vs Chernomorets?

FK Rodina Moskva 0-1 Chernomorets in the Russia - FNL on 17/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Rodina Moskva vs Chernomorets?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Rodina Moskva win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FK Rodina Moskva 40%, draw 31%, Chernomorets 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Rodina Moskva) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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