18/01/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
2-1
AAli FC vs Buri Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
23%
Draw
25%
29%
Away Win
22%
52%
Under 2.5
48%
48%
Over 2.5
52%
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
46%
BTTS No
49%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AAli FC v Buri — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
AAli FC
EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY
Buri
EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
53%
Ball Possession
47%
12
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
4
329 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
286 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
AAli FC vs Buri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
AAli FC swept aside Buri 4-1. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Just as the model leaned, our model had AAli FC as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
What was the final score of AAli FC vs Buri?
AAli FC 4-1 Buri in the Bahrain - Cup on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AAli FC vs Buri?
Before kick-off our model rated a AAli FC win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AAli FC 48%, draw 23%, Buri 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AAli FC), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (AAli FC)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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18 Jan 2024