AGF Aarhus 3-3 Puskas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 18 Jan 2024

📅18/01/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
Over 2.5
46%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
21%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
25%
Away Win
25%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Puskas FC EU Bookmakers 29%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -45% / -45%
3.33/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/4.00
+102% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -61%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
341 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
3-3
AWAY Puskas FC
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
0 Corners 5
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs Puskas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus and Puskas FC couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 2-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 35% of the ball to Puskas FC's 65%, shots finished 7-12.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs Puskas FC?

AGF Aarhus 3-3 Puskas FC in the Friendlies on 18/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs Puskas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 48%, draw 27%, Puskas FC 25%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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