Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Perth Glory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 18 Jan 2025

Melbourne Victory (K)
1-0 HT 1-0
Perth Glory (K)
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Australia - W-League – 2024/2025

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
14%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
66%
-4.4pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.1pp
20%
Away Win
14%
+5.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.3pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Melbourne Victory (K) v Perth Glory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Perth Glory (K) EU Bookmakers 17%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.10/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.49/1.71
+27% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +46%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.9
24.8 Crosses 10.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Perth Glory (K)
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.64 xG 1.42
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
309 Passes 285
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 24
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.12.2024 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
12.01.2024 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 1-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) AVUSTW
28.12.2019 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 1-2 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
10.02.2019 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-4 HT 1-0 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) AVUSTW
01.02.2019 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) 1-2 HT 0-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
28.12.2018 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory (K) Perth Glory (K) AVUSTW

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Perth Glory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melbourne Victory (K)
1-0
AWAY Perth Glory (K)
0.60 xG 0.35
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
280 Passes 221
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) edged past Perth Glory (K) 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Melbourne Victory (K) as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melbourne Victory (K) had 55% of the ball to Perth Glory (K)'s 45%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.60 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne Victory (K) had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Melbourne Victory (K) and 1.33 for Perth Glory (K).

What was the final score of Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)?

Melbourne Victory (K) 1-0 Perth Glory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melbourne Victory (K) vs Perth Glory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melbourne Victory (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Melbourne Victory (K) 62%, draw 18%, Perth Glory (K) 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne Victory (K)) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
18 Jan 2025
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