Al Ahly 1-2 Orlando Pirates — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
20%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.44
No
58%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.65
6+ Goals
8%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.93
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.15
X/1
22%
3.56
X/2
9%
12.3
X/X
12%
4.55
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
7%
12.0
2/X
6%
22.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
62%
-6.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
37%
+4.8pp
58%
BTTS No
63%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 17%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
397 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Orlando Pirates
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.20 xG 0.31
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
284 Passes 309
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 11
07.12.2024 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly CAFŞL
04.10.2015 Al Ahly Al Ahly 3-4 HT 1-0 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates CAFKK
26.09.2015 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly CAFKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
1-2
AWAY Orlando Pirates
2.28 xG 1.36
60% Ball Possession 40%
23 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
471 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Orlando Pirates
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando Pirates edged past Al Ahly 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Al Ahly carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 60% of the ball to Orlando Pirates's 40%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 2.28 to 1.36 — on chances, Al Ahly could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Orlando Pirates led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ahly and 1.67 for Orlando Pirates.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Orlando Pirates?

Al Ahly 1-2 Orlando Pirates in the CAF Champions League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Orlando Pirates?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 55%, draw 25%, Orlando Pirates 20%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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