ES Tunis 4-1 Sagrada Esperança — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CAF Champions League, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.18
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
12%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.53
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.76
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.62
6+ Goals
8%
6.67
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.24
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
8%
34.5
X/1
17%
3.61
X/2
3%
34.5
X/X
10%
10.25
2/1
8%
28.0
2/2
5%
34.5
2/X
4%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
80%
-13.3pp
21%
Draw
14%
+6.9pp
12%
Away Win
6%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.2pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ES Tunis EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagrada Esperança EU Bookmakers 8%
-21% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
1.81/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/2.38
+46% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
28.0 Crosses 11.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ES Tunis
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Sagrada Esperança
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.74 xG 0.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
342 Passes 211
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 4
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.12.2024 Sagrada Esperança Sagrada Esperança 0-0 HT 0-0 ES Tunis ES Tunis CAFŞL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ES Tunis
4-1
AWAY Sagrada Esperança
2.49 xG 0.61
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 14
11 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
440 Passes 404
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
37 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ES Tunis vs Sagrada Esperança
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ES Tunis swept aside Sagrada Esperança 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had ES Tunis as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ES Tunis had 52% of the ball to Sagrada Esperança's 48%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.49 to 0.61.

What was the final score of ES Tunis vs Sagrada Esperança?

ES Tunis 4-1 Sagrada Esperança in the CAF Champions League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ES Tunis vs Sagrada Esperança?

Before kick-off our model rated a ES Tunis win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split ES Tunis 67%, draw 21%, Sagrada Esperança 12%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ES Tunis), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ES Tunis) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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