TransMara Sugar 3-0 Mathare United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 18 Jan 2025

TransMara Sugar
3-0 HT 2-0
Mathare United
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Kenya - Premier League – 2024/2025

TransMara Sugar vs Mathare United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.3
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
Over 2.5
47%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
3.08
No
51%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-15.2pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.2pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+8.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
28%
+20.6pp
51%
BTTS No
72%
-20.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

TransMara Sugar v Mathare United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Mathare United EU Bookmakers 11%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 0.5
POST-MATCH TransMara Sugar vs Mathare United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransMara Sugar cruised past Mathare United 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had TransMara Sugar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

What was the final score of TransMara Sugar vs Mathare United?

TransMara Sugar 3-0 Mathare United in the Kenya - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for TransMara Sugar vs Mathare United?

Before kick-off our model rated a TransMara Sugar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split TransMara Sugar 57%, draw 26%, Mathare United 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (TransMara Sugar), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (TransMara Sugar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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