Amed SK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.74
Over 2.5
36%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.81
No
60%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
46%
1.8
4-5 Goals
16%
4.03
6+ Goals
7%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.02
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
19%
4.88
X/2
8%
6.94
X/X
14%
4.22
2/1
5%
27.5
2/2
15%
5.22
2/X
7%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Amed SK win — 41%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-3.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
54%
+10.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
46%
-10.8pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-11.4pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+11.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amed SK EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +15%
1.12/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.18
-26% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +40%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
324 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
16.0 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amed SK
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.54 xG 0.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
2 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 1
346 Passes 325
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
7 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.08.2024 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 HT 0-0 Amed SK Amed SK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amed SK
1-1
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.06 xG 1.16
69% Ball Possession 31%
16 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
392 Passes 143
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
32 Box Touches 11
34 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Amed SK vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amed SK and Fatih Karagümrük couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Amed SK at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Amed SK had 69% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 31%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.06 to 1.16.

What was the final score of Amed SK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Amed SK 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amed SK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amed SK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amed SK 41%, draw 30%, Fatih Karagümrük 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Amed SK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Amed SK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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