Çorum FK 3-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.76
No
59%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
3.2
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 34% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.67
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.25
X/1
15%
4.58
X/2
8%
7.56
X/X
12%
4.62
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
14%
5.79
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.7pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Çorum FK EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.82/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.48
+32% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
23.5 Crosses 15.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Çorum FK
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.53 xG 0.79
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
387 Passes 311
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 3-0 HT 1-0 Çorum FK Çorum FK T1L
09.02.2024 Çorum FK Çorum FK 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
16.09.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 0-3 HT 0-1 Çorum FK Çorum FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Çorum FK
3-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.38 xG 1.91
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
289 Passes 396
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Çorum FK vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Çorum FK saw off Ümraniyespor 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Çorum FK as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Çorum FK had 42% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 58%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.38 to 1.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Ümraniyespor.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Çorum FK and 1.33 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Çorum FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Çorum FK 3-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Çorum FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Çorum FK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Çorum FK 46%, draw 25%, Ümraniyespor 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Çorum FK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Çorum FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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