Esenler Erokspor 1-0 Adanaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
22%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.38
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
13.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.39
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.55
X/1
15%
4.38
X/2
9%
8.59
X/X
16%
4.88
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.4
2/2
7%
6.72
2/X
9%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.8pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.2pp
22%
Away Win
23%
-0.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Adanaspor EU Bookmakers 26%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -19%
1.81/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.45
-68% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -21%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
27.9 Crosses 12.3
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esenler Erokspor
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Adanaspor
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.92 xG 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
435 Passes 235
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Adanaspor Adanaspor 2-1 HT 1-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
06.12.2023 Adanaspor Adanaspor 2-0 HT 0-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esenler Erokspor
1-0
AWAY Adanaspor
1.35 xG 0.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 5
263 Passes 284
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
14 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Esenler Erokspor vs Adanaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esenler Erokspor nicked a narrow win over Adanaspor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Esenler Erokspor as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Esenler Erokspor had 48% of the ball to Adanaspor's 52%, shots finished 8-6, expected goals 1.35 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Adanaspor led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Esenler Erokspor and 2.00 for Adanaspor.

What was the final score of Esenler Erokspor vs Adanaspor?

Esenler Erokspor 1-0 Adanaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esenler Erokspor vs Adanaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Esenler Erokspor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Esenler Erokspor 47%, draw 31%, Adanaspor 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Esenler Erokspor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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