Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
52%
1.67
Over
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No Pick
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
42%
4-5
20%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
35%
Home Win
24%
+11.4pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.0pp
43%
Away Win
49%
-6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.0pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chiangrai United The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY BG Pathum United The Market 54%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.96/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.18
+15% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
246 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 79%
14.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
13.9 Crosses 21.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chiangrai United
1W-0D-4L
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.16 xG 1.40
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
266 Passes 385
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.08.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 2-0 HT 2-0 Chiangrai United Chiangrai United TAY
06.04.2024 Chiangrai United Chiangrai United 2-3 HT 1-3 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
26.11.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 3-1 HT 2-1 Chiangrai United Chiangrai United TAY
12.02.2022 Chiangrai United Chiangrai United 1-2 HT 0-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
06.10.2021 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-2 HT 0-2 Chiangrai United Chiangrai United TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chiangrai United
1-0
AWAY BG Pathum United
1.48 xG 0.94
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
212 Passes 401
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chiangrai United squeezed past BG Pathum United 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Chiangrai United had 38% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 62%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.48 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Chiangrai United and 2.00 for BG Pathum United.

What was the final score of Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United?

Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United?

Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chiangrai United 35%, draw 22%, BG Pathum United 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (BG Pathum United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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