Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chiangrai United v BG Pathum United — Team-Based Signals
Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United — Actual Match Statistics
Chiangrai United squeezed past BG Pathum United 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was BG Pathum United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Chiangrai United had 38% of the ball to BG Pathum United's 62%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.48 to 0.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Chiangrai United and 2.00 for BG Pathum United.
What was the final score of Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United?
Chiangrai United 1-0 BG Pathum United in the Thailand - 1st Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chiangrai United vs BG Pathum United?
Before kick-off our model rated an BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chiangrai United 35%, draw 22%, BG Pathum United 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (BG Pathum United) went the other way.