Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 18 Feb 2024

Rayo Vallecano
1-1 HT 1-1
Real Madrid
📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
53%
1.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 28% vs market 21.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
8.31
1/2
5%
22.45
1/X
4%
16.4
X/1
5%
10.55
X/2
21%
3.75
X/X
12%
5.37
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
27%
1.99
2/X
6%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
22%
+2.9pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
53%
Away Win
55%
-2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.4pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 59%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.07/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.11
+26% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
21.6 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Real Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 1.76
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
315 Passes 487
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 32
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-0 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
24.05.2023 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
07.11.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-2 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
26.02.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1
06.11.2021 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2-1 HT 2-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
28.04.2019 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Madrid Real Madrid İS1

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-1
AWAY Real Madrid
1.16 xG 1.12
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
265 Passes 439
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 29
13 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 39% of the ball to Real Madrid's 61%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.16 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Real Madrid.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid?

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 24%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 53%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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