Elversberg 3-1 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
2.29
Over Pick
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.74
2-3
41%
1.91
4-5
25%
2.78
6+
10%
7.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.55
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
4%
12.65
X/1
11%
4.71
X/2
8%
7.53
X/X
14%
5.53
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
15%
4.9
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.2 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-1.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.0pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.7pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-11.6pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 31%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.15/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.01
-11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
334 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 76%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
24.1 Crosses 18.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Osnabrück
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.86 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
389 Passes 287
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.09.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
15.04.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-0 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL3
22.10.2022 Elversberg Elversberg 4-1 HT 2-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
05.04.2014 Elversberg Elversberg 2-2 HT 1-1 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL3
26.10.2013 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-1 Elversberg Elversberg AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
3-1
AWAY Osnabrück
1.48 xG 0.97
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
333 Passes 395
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg got the better of Osnabrück 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Elversberg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Elversberg had 46% of the ball to Osnabrück's 54%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.48 to 0.97.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Elversberg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Elversberg and 0.80 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Osnabrück?

Elversberg 3-1 Osnabrück in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elversberg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 46%, draw 25%, Osnabrück 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elversberg), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Elversberg) ✓ Over 2.5
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