St. Pauli 1-0 Braunschweig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
16%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.15
Over
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
22%
4.16
2-3
41%
1.84
4-5
26%
2.98
6+
11%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.16 — our 22% vs market 18.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.2
X/1
15%
3.48
X/2
6%
15.15
X/X
9%
6.64
2/1
12%
22.05
2/2
6%
12.0
2/X
8%
19.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
St. Pauli win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
67%
-6.8pp
24%
Draw
20%
+3.6pp
16%
Away Win
13%
+3.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Braunschweig EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.75/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.12
-3% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
462 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 72%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
21.5 Crosses 14.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Braunschweig
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.53 xG 0.94
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
440 Passes 222
79% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2023 Braunschweig Braunschweig 1-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
16.04.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-2 HT 0-2 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
08.10.2022 Braunschweig Braunschweig 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
05.04.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-0 HT 2-0 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
05.12.2020 Braunschweig Braunschweig 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
10.03.2018 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-0 HT 0-0 Braunschweig Braunschweig AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1-0
AWAY Braunschweig
1.05 xG 2.05
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
534 Passes 290
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Braunschweig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli edged past Braunschweig 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 62% of the ball to Braunschweig's 38%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.05 to 2.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Braunschweig.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Braunschweig led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for St. Pauli and 1.17 for Braunschweig.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Braunschweig?

St. Pauli 1-0 Braunschweig in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Braunschweig?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 60%, draw 24%, Braunschweig 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✗ Over 2.5
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