Rosario Central 2-1 Gimnasia La Plata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.54
Over 2.5
32%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.99
No
62%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
14%
4.99
6+ Goals
7%
29.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.36 — our 39% vs market 35.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.42
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.75
X/2
9%
5.99
X/X
15%
3.64
2/1
7%
32.5
2/2
13%
4.75
2/X
9%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.6pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.5pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.1pp
68%
Under 2.5
61%
+6.9pp
32%
Over 2.5
39%
-6.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
46%
-8.0pp
62%
BTTS No
54%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.47/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.26
+27% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
303 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
23.3 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rosario Central
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.11 xG 1.08
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 Passes 248
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.09.2023 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 2-1 HT 1-1 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
01.04.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 3-1 HT 1-1 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
25.06.2022 Rosario Central Rosario Central 0-1 HT 0-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
30.07.2021 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata 1-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
16.02.2020 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJ
07.12.2018 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-1 HT 1-0 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ARJK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosario Central
2-1
AWAY Gimnasia La Plata
1.35 xG 0.94
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
158 Passes 241
59% Pass Accuracy 68%
14 Box Touches 11
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosario Central edged past Gimnasia La Plata 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rosario Central as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rosario Central had 43% of the ball to Gimnasia La Plata's 57%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.35 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gimnasia La Plata led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Rosario Central and 1.00 for Gimnasia La Plata.

What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Rosario Central 2-1 Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentina - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosario Central vs Gimnasia La Plata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosario Central win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Rosario Central 41%, draw 32%, Gimnasia La Plata 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rosario Central) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rosario Central) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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