Arda Kardzhali 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.5pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 30%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
3.00/2.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/0.95
+150% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
278 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arda Kardzhali
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Corners 0
18.08.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 0-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arda Kardzhali
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv edged past Arda Kardzhali 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Arda Kardzhali at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arda Kardzhali had 57% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 43%, shots finished 9-10.

What was the final score of Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Arda Kardzhali 1-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Arda Kardzhali 44%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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