FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 Lyngby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.43
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.76
No
55%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.82
6+ Goals
12%
7.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.61 — our 23% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
18.45
X/1
27%
3.58
X/2
8%
13.7
X/X
7%
6.97
2/1
9%
20.4
2/2
7%
10.2
2/X
7%
18.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
66%
-6.9pp
22%
Draw
20%
+2.1pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.7pp
55%
BTTS No
47%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyngby EU Bookmakers 18%
+11% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
2.28/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.65
+40% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
442 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
30.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
15.9 Crosses 16.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Lyngby
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.39 xG 1.53
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
432 Passes 305
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.09.2023 Lyngby Lyngby 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
19.02.2023 Lyngby Lyngby 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
01.08.2022 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-1 HT 1-0 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
12.03.2021 Lyngby Lyngby 0-3 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
28.09.2020 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 4-1 HT 0-1 Lyngby Lyngby DAN
29.11.2019 Lyngby Lyngby 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
3-2
AWAY Lyngby
1.69 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
24 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
421 Passes 327
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
59 Box Touches 22
26 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Nordsjaelland nicked a narrow win over Lyngby 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Nordsjaelland as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 56% of the ball to Lyngby's 44%, shots finished 24-14, expected goals 1.69 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 0.83 for Lyngby.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby?

FC Nordsjaelland 3-2 Lyngby in the Denmark - Süperlig on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs Lyngby?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Nordsjaelland win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 59%, draw 22%, Lyngby 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Nordsjaelland) ✗ BTTS No
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