Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.47
2-3 Goals
34%
1.99
4-5 Goals
31%
2.62
6+ Goals
16%
6.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.8
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
18%
3.92
X/2
7%
12.0
X/X
14%
7.14
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.95
2/2
11%
8.05
2/X
6%
16.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.95 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.3pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.5pp
23%
Away Win
19%
+3.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.8pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +11%
2.29/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.54
+4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +56%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
462 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
38.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
23.3 Crosses 14.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
5W-1D-0L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.67 xG 0.66
66% Ball Possession 34%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
534 Passes 222
86% Pass Accuracy 70%
53 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
05.03.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.01.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
23.04.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
14.08.2021 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 5-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
08.04.2017 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-5 HT 0-3 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-2
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.09 xG 1.90
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 5
490 Passes 419
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 53% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 47%, shots finished 8-16, expected goals 1.09 to 1.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Ajax and 0.50 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ajax 50%, draw 27%, NEC Nijmegen 23%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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