Independiente Medellin 2-2 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 23%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -30% / -30%
1.23/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.03
+1% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -98% / -29%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 75%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
17.2 Crosses 20.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
2-2
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
2.08 xG 1.80
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 165
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
22 Box Touches 9
14 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Fortaleza CEIF shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente Medellin at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 61% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 39%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 2.08 to 1.80.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Independiente Medellin 2-2 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 46%, draw 30%, Fortaleza CEIF 24%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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