Atletico San Luis 3-3 Tijuana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.63
No
55%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
10%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.72 — our 29% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
28%
Away Win
29%
-0.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
57%
-12.0pp
55%
BTTS No
43%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tijuana EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -16%
1.42/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.46
-8% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
295 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 74%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.6 Crosses 16.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Tijuana
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.58 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
256 Passes 306
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.10.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
11.02.2023 Tijuana Tijuana 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
02.09.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
07.04.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
17.09.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 4-1 HT 3-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
05.02.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-2 HT 1-2 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
3-3
AWAY Tijuana
2.56 xG 1.57
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
511 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Tijuana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis and Tijuana couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico San Luis at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 65% of the ball to Tijuana's 35%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.56 to 1.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tijuana led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.17 for Tijuana.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Tijuana?

Atletico San Luis 3-3 Tijuana in the Mexico - Primera on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Tijuana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico San Luis win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 44%, draw 27%, Tijuana 28%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico San Luis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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