CD Feirense 2-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.9
Over
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.31
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
19%
3.5
6+
9%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.31 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
31%
+1.6pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.9pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-4.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CD Feirense EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 46%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.20/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.91
+22% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -45%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
283 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses 21.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CD Feirense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Nacional
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.26 xG 0.85
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 8
319 Passes 349
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 0-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR2
21.04.2023 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR2
06.11.2022 CD Feirense CD Feirense 1-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR2
15.05.2022 CD Feirense CD Feirense 4-1 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR2
10.01.2022 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 CD Feirense CD Feirense POR2
17.10.2021 CD Feirense CD Feirense 3-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CD Feirense
2-1
AWAY Nacional
1.32 xG 0.81
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
241 Passes 289
72% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CD Feirense vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Feirense squeezed past Nacional 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 29% / 38% — and on the day CD Feirense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CD Feirense had 46% of the ball to Nacional's 54%, shots finished 6-11, expected goals 1.32 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for CD Feirense and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of CD Feirense vs Nacional?

CD Feirense 2-1 Nacional in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CD Feirense vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split CD Feirense 32%, draw 29%, Nacional 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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