Penafiel vs Santa Clara Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Santa Clara — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
0-0
HT 0-0
Santa Clara
HAZ
3-2
HT 1-0
Penafiel
POR2
3-1
HT 1-1
Santa Clara
POR2
Penafiel 1-2 Santa Clara — Actual Match Statistics
Santa Clara edged past Penafiel 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santa Clara as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Penafiel had 63% of the ball to Santa Clara's 37%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.17 to 1.55.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Penafiel and 1.00 for Santa Clara.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Santa Clara?
Penafiel 1-2 Santa Clara in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Santa Clara?
Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 26%, draw 28%, Santa Clara 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.