Miramar Misiones 2-3 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
42%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
40%
-8.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
42%
Away Win
31%
+10.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.9pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Miramar Misiones EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 34%
-53% / -53% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +19%
0.00/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/0.95
-100% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
265 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Miramar Misiones
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Progreso
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
02.09.2023 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 0-0 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones URU2
14.05.2023 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones 2-2 HT 1-2 Progreso Progreso URU2
23.07.2022 Progreso Progreso 1-1 HT 1-1 Miramar Misiones Miramar Misiones URU2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Miramar Misiones
2-3
AWAY Progreso
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Miramar Misiones vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past Miramar Misiones 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Progreso as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Miramar Misiones had 52% of the ball to Progreso's 48%, shots finished 16-12.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Miramar Misiones and 1.33 for Progreso.

What was the final score of Miramar Misiones vs Progreso?

Miramar Misiones 2-3 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Miramar Misiones vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated an Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Miramar Misiones 31%, draw 27%, Progreso 42%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Progreso) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Progreso) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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