Al Nassr 1-0 Arkadag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCŞL2, 18 Feb 2026

📅18/02/2026 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.16
Draw
17%
7.13
Away
11%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.98
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
6.73
2-3 Goals
34%
2.14
4-5 Goals
28%
2.33
6+ Goals
14%
4.38
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.18
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
4%
34.0
X/1
22%
3.86
X/2
4%
34.0
X/X
10%
12.85
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
24.8
2/2
4%
34.0
2/X
3%
34.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.8 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
72%
Home Win
82%
-10.1pp
17%
Draw
12%
+5.1pp
11%
Away Win
6%
+5.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Arkadag EU Bookmakers 8%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
2.24/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.88
+67% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +28%
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
475 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 76%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.1 Crosses 33.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nassr
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Arkadag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
11.02.2026 Arkadag Arkadag 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Nassr Al Nassr AFCŞL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Nassr
1-0
AWAY Arkadag
2.34 xG 0.84
79% Ball Possession 21%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
766 Passes 160
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
33 Box Touches 7
14 Crosses 6
POST-MATCH Al Nassr vs Arkadag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr squeezed past Arkadag 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Nassr as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Nassr had 79% of the ball to Arkadag's 21%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 2.34 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Nassr's control.

What was the final score of Al Nassr vs Arkadag?

Al Nassr 1-0 Arkadag in the AFCŞL2 on 18/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nassr vs Arkadag?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Al Nassr 72%, draw 17%, Arkadag 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nassr) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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