Atlas 1-2 Monterrey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Mar 2024

Atlas
1-2 HT 0-1
Monterrey
📅18/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atlas vs Monterrey Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
40%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.02
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.88
6+ Goals
8%
17.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.02 — our 29% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
28%
+3.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
40%
Away Win
44%
-3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Monterrey — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterrey EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +16%
1.19/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.14
-22% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +37%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
271 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.6 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Atlas vs Monterrey Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Monterrey
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.74 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
310 Passes 323
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.07.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 1-0 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
10.02.2023 Atlas Atlas 0-2 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
18.09.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 2-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
21.04.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
28.11.2021 Atlas Atlas 1-1 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
25.11.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK

Atlas 1-2 Monterrey — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-2
AWAY Monterrey
1.98 xG 0.78
47% Ball Possession 53%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
300 Passes 364
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 12
37 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Monterrey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey nicked a narrow win over Atlas 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Monterrey made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atlas had 47% of the ball to Monterrey's 53%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.98 to 0.78 — the balance of chances actually favoured Atlas.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monterrey led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Atlas and 1.00 for Monterrey.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Monterrey?

Atlas 1-2 Monterrey in the Mexico - Primera on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Monterrey?

Before kick-off our model rated an Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atlas 32%, draw 28%, Monterrey 40%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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