Toluca 3-0 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Mar 2024

Toluca
3-0 HT 2-0
Pumas UNAM
📅18/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.03
6+ Goals
11%
9.43
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.18 — our 25% vs market 18.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
52%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toluca v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toluca EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -2%
1.90/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.55
+6% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
17.2 Crosses 16.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.29 xG 2.10
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
402 Passes 232
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
16.04.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 3-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
11.09.2022 Toluca Toluca 2-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
11.01.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 5-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
22.11.2021 Toluca Toluca 1-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
29.08.2021 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK

Toluca 3-0 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
3-0
AWAY Pumas UNAM
3.11 xG 0.60
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 Passes 364
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toluca vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Pumas UNAM 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Toluca had 48% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 52%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 3.11 to 0.60.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Toluca and 2.33 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?

Toluca 3-0 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Toluca 50%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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