Atletico San Luis 2-1 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Mar 2024

Atletico San Luis
2-1 HT 1-0
Pachuca
📅18/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
26%
2.99
6+ Goals
9%
9.18
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.26 — our 28% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+2.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.5pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.3pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico San Luis v Pachuca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.21/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.26
-2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
252 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.1 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Pachuca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.12 xG 1.84
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
238 Passes 319
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
29.08.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
23.04.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
19.09.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
15.05.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-2 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
12.05.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
07.01.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-2 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Atletico San Luis 2-1 Pachuca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
2-1
AWAY Pachuca
1.12 xG 0.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 11
329 Passes 436
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
13 Box Touches 38
7 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico San Luis squeezed past Pachuca 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 28% / 40% — and on the day Atletico San Luis made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 45% of the ball to Pachuca's 55%, shots finished 7-19, expected goals 1.12 to 0.64.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.83 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca?

Atletico San Luis 2-1 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 18/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 31%, draw 28%, Pachuca 40%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pachuca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
18 Mar 2024
02:00 Atlas vs Monterrey Analysis →
04:00 Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Analysis →