Aguilas Doradas 4-0 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 18 Apr 2024

📅18/04/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.09
No
57%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 23%
+8% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.22/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.31
+1% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +27%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 74%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.5
17.8 Crosses 11.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguilas Doradas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.50 xG 1.23
55% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
324 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.10.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
18.06.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
23.05.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 5-3 HT 1-2 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
30.04.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 2-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
13.09.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
20.03.2022 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-1 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
4-0
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
2.86 xG 0.66
51% Ball Possession 49%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
287 Passes 289
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 7
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas swept aside Alianza Petrolera 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Aguilas Doradas as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 51% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 49%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.86 to 0.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aguilas Doradas and 1.67 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Aguilas Doradas 4-0 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 18/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 48%, draw 28%, Alianza Petrolera 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aguilas Doradas), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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